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Systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are often
used to model the dynamics of complex biological pathways. We construct
a discrete state model as a probabilistic approximation of the ODE
dynamics by discretizing the value space and the time domain. We then
sample a representative set of trajectories and exploit the discretization
and the structure of the signaling pathway to encode these trajectories
compactly as a dynamic Bayesian network. As a result, many interesting
pathway properties can be analyzed efficiently through standard
Bayesian inference techniques. We have tested our method on a model
of EGF-NGF signaling pathway (Brown et al.) and the results are very promising in
terms of both accuracy and efficiency.
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