10 Mar 2004
CS 3243 - Uncertainty
7
An Example
(due to MIT’s open coursework
slides)
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
y
f4
f3
f2
f1
(1,1) (0,1) (1,0) (0,0)
R1 = 1/5, 4/5, 5/5,
0/5
R2 = 1/5, 4/5, 2/5,
3/5
R3 = 4/5, 1/5, 1/5,
4/5
R4 = 2/5, 3/5, 4/5,
1/5
New x = <0, 0, 1,
1>
S(1) = R1(0,1)*R2(0,1)*R3(1,1)*R4(1,1) = .205
S(0) = R1(0,0)*R2(0,0)*R3(1,0)*R4(1,0) =
0
S(1) > S(0), so predict v =
1.