10 Mar 2004
CS 3243 - Uncertainty
3
Uncertainty
nLet action At = leave for airport t minutes before flight
nWill At get me there on time?
n
nProblems:
1.partial observability (road state, other drivers' plans, etc.)
2.noisy sensors (traffic reports)
3.uncertainty in action outcomes (flat tire, etc.)
4.immense complexity of modeling and predicting traffic
n
nHence a purely logical approach either
1.risks falsehood: “A25 will get me there on time”, or
2.leads to conclusions that are too weak for decision making:
n
n“A25 will get me there on time if there's no accident on the bridge and it doesn't rain and my tires remain intact etc etc.”
n
n(A1440 might reasonably be said to get me there on time but I'd have to stay overnight in the airport …)