10 Mar 2004
CS 3243 - Uncertainty
4
Methods for
handling uncertainty
nDefault or nonmonotonic logic:
nAssume my car does not have a flat tire
nAssume A25 works unless
contradicted by evidence
nIssues: What assumptions are reasonable? How to handle contradiction?
nRules with fudge factors:
nA25 |→0.3 get there on time
nSprinkler |→ 0.99 WetGrass
nWetGrass |→ 0.7 Rain
nIssues: Problems with combination, e.g., Sprinkler
causes Rain??
nProbability
nModel agent's degree of belief
nGiven the available evidence,
nA25 will get me there on time with probability
0.04