10 Mar 2004
CS 3243 - Uncertainty
5
Probability
Probabilistic assertions summarize
effects of
nlaziness: failure to enumerate exceptions, qualifications, etc.
nignorance: lack of relevant facts, initial conditions, etc.
Subjective probability:
nProbabilities relate propositions to agent's own state
of knowledge
e.g., P(A25 | no reported accidents) = 0.06
These are not
assertions about the world
Probabilities of propositions change
with new evidence:
e.g., P(A25 | no reported accidents, 5 a.m.) = 0.15