10 Mar 2004
CS 3243 - Uncertainty
6
Making
decisions under uncertainty
Suppose I believe the
following:
P(A25 gets me there on
time | …) = 0.04
P(A90 gets me there on
time | …) = 0.70
P(A120 gets me there on time | …) = 0.95
P(A1440 gets me there on
time | …) = 0.9999
nWhich action to choose?
Depends on my preferences for missing flight vs. time spent waiting, etc.
nUtility theory is used to represent and infer preferences
nDecision theory = probability theory + utility theory